The best, most entertaining football weekend of the year has arrived: It’s the Wild Card round, and we’ve got three days of win-or-go-home football ahead of us.
This year’s AFC playoff picture has it all. First, we get to watch as two clubs go head-to-head in search of a drought-ending (and potentially curse-breaking) post-season win when the Raiders visit Cincinnati. Then, it’s time for a return of a familiar face as Bill Belichick is back in the post-season after missing it for the first time in two decades last year. He’s not used to being a wild card, but he is accustomed to battling for AFC East dominance, and has one final shot at Buffalo Saturday night. Sunday night’s AFC Wild Card finale brings a lop-sided matchup between Pittsburgh and Kansas City in what will be Big Ben’s final game… for real this time… right?
Considering parity went undefeated in 2021, anything can happen.
Let’s dig in.
*All betting figures current as of publication.
LAS VEGAS RAIDERS (6) AT CINCINNATI BENGALS (3)
Kickoff: Saturday, Jan. 15 @ 4:30 p.m. ET
Betting lines: Bengals favoured by 5.5 | O/U: 48.5
A rematch three decades in the making
Of the five quarterbacks making their playoff debuts this January, three are in the AFC – and two are about to go head-to-head when the Raiders visit the Bengals on Saturday.
While this marks the first trip to the post-season for Derek Carr and Joe Burrow, this game is actually a rematch more than three decades in the making.
The short of it is this: On Jan. 13, 1991, the Raiders defeated the Bengals in a divisional-round playoff game during which then-Raiders super star Bo Jackson suffered a devastating hip injury upon being tackled by a Bengals defender, ultimately ending his short but thrilling NFL career.
The long of it? Well, that’s the 31 years of futility that followed, as Cincinnati hasn’t won a playoff game since.
Now, whether or not you believe in “The Curse of Bo Jackson” depends entirely on your willingness to lean into the superstitious – after all, maybe Cincinnati’s long run of missed opportunities and Wild Card losses is due to just, you know, not being all that good in a division that generally… is.
Either way, Burrow now has an opportunity to step in and close the loop in what could be a full-circle moment, finally halting the league’s longest playoff win drought. Only, to Carr, whose Raiders are also dealing with a long post-season win drought — 19 years, the NFL’s fourth-longest – the Bengals represent just another obstacle for these resilient Raiders to overcome in what has been a long season of hurdles that could’ve derailed this roster.
Whoever comes out on top – and no, there will be absolutely no talk of ties this time! – will see a long-lived drought (or a curse!) finally broken.
Matchup to watch: Maxx Crosby vs. Burrow’s bodyguards
After watching Burrow get carted off the field last year, his phenomenal rookie campaign cut short by a season-ending knee injury, we all assumed Bengals brass would make it their off-season mission to bulk up the offensive line. Instead, management brought in a long list of moderate upgrades on defence and drafted Burrow’s old LSU teammate, Ja’Marr Chase, fifth overall while top-rated tackle Penei Sewell was still on the board. The decision to invest in weapons rather than bodyguards for Burrow has, clearly, paid off – Chase is truly a game-changer, and a big reason why we’re about to see this high-octane offence in the post-season. But that offensive line? Yeah, it’s still a problem – while Burrow put up impressive passing numbers, he also topped the league in sacks, taken down 51 times. He played just one game (Week 3 against Pittsburgh) all year without being sacked, while enduring 13 multi-sack games including six with four sacks or more in 2021.
Now, he’s about to take on one of league’s best when it comes to quarterback pressures in Maxx Crosby, who’s coming in hot after Sunday’s dominant game-breaking performance against the Chargers.
Maxx Crosby: 101 QB pressures this season
1st among all defenders pic.twitter.com/CZsjyb0zaJ— PFF (@PFF) January 14, 2022
“You have to have a plan for him. He can disrupt an entire game,” Bengals head coach Zac Taylor told reporters earlier this week of Crosby. “Outside of the players in our locker room here, he’s one of my favorite players in this league.”
Here’s Burrow on Crosby, who he faced – up close and personal! – in Week 11, a 32-13 Bengals win that was closer than the score implies:
“He’s obviously a great player … we’re going to have to have a plan for him and have to get the ball out quickly and just understand that my time might be limited in the pocket because those guys they have on that side.”
An already pressure-filled (in every sense) situation becomes even tougher with the continued absence of starting tackle Riley Reiff, leaving Isaiah Prince to step in and try to stop the relentless edge rusher. Good luck.
NEW ENGLAND PATRIOTS (5) AT BUFFALO BILLS (4)
Kickoff: Saturday, Jan. 15 @ 8:15 p.m. ET
Betting lines: Bills favoured by 4.5 | O/U: 44
Which version of this Bills offence will we see?
In two head-to-head matchups between the Patriots and Bills this season, we saw two very different outcomes:
The first, an early-December showdown in frigid, windy temperatures, saw Bill Belichick cut his offensive playbook in half for a victory that was equal parts fascinating and boring. Patriots quarterback Mac Jones attempted just three passes while Belichick called run after run after run in the 14-10 victory that left Bills defenders frustrated for not being able to stop plays they knew were coming.
The second, 20 days later, brought a Bills performance we’re much more accustomed to seeing, as Josh Allen threw for 314 passing yards and a trio of touchdowns while Devin Singletary ran one in. Seeing Allen at his best surely has Bills fans feeling confident, but it’s that Singletary score that might just be the key here.
Buffalo has lacked a strong run presence for much the season, its air-heavy offence dynamic enough to still come away with lop-sided wins despite a lack of diverse play-calling. But a late-season surge in Singletary’s snap-count and performance – a sore spot for Buffalo through much of the season – brings promise against a beat-up Patriots defence that has struggled against the run. A successful day for Singletary should mean a win in Buffalo.
Another reason to run the ball? Well… not sure if you’ve checked the weather, but…
Matchup to watch: Frostbite vs. everybody
If you’ve read or heard just one thing about Saturday night’s showdown between the Patriots and Bills, you already know it’s cold in Buffalo. Like, really cold.
Okay, this is nothing new – January happens every year in Buffalo. But whether the weather is absolutely frigid or just really, really cold, there’s no denying that these conditions can have an impact on the final score, and pave the way for what could be another run-heavy game.
Interesting the Bills activating LB Joe Giles-Harris. He’s been active for two games this season (1st Pats game and Bucs). Played zero defensive snaps, but a lot on STs. Maybe to lighten the ST load on another LB who will play more defense than usual against a heavy run team?!
— Sal Capaccio (@SalSports) January 14, 2022
PITTSBURGH STEELERS (7) AT KANSAS CITY CHIEFS (2)
Kickoff: Sunday, Jan. 16 @ 8:15 p.m. ET
Betting lines: Chiefs favoured by 13 | O/U: 46
This is the end for Big Ben… right?
A week ago, Ben Roethlisberger was preparing for what he (and we) believed would be his final NFL game. After a magical Week 17 win against Cleveland at home, Roethlisberger and the Steelers arrived in Baltimore for the season finale with just a nine per cent shot at the post-season. The farewell messages were flowing like he’d already hung up the cleats.
And then the Colts lost to the Jaguars.
And then Pittsburgh edged the Ravens in overtime.
And then the Chargers and Raiders didn’t tie.
Suddenly, Big Ben’s not done yet… technically.
Leave it to the 39-year-old Steeler to give us as blunt a game preview as it gets:
“We probably aren’t supposed to be here. We’re probably not a very good football team,” Roethlisberger told reporters in Pittsburgh this week, his tone light and delivery direct. “Of 14 teams that are in [the playoffs] we’re probably No. 14. We’re double-digit underdogs in the playoffs, so let’s just play and have fun and see what happens.”
While Roethlisberger is speaking the truth, there’s obviously a method to his madness – he’s not throwing in that terrible towel. After all, as we’ve seen time and time again, what’s more dangerous than a team hitting the field with nothing to lose?
Matchup to watch: Patrick Mahomes vs. Steelers’ lethal pass rush
When you have an offence as dynamic as Kansas City’s, there are so many possible x-factors that could break this game wide open. Tyreek Hill’s health, Travis Kelce’s dominance, how secondary receivers like Byron Pringle and Mecole Hardman might step up…
But while Patrick Mahomes’ offensive weapons will undoubtedly put on a show, the most exciting player on the field might just be a defender: Steelers linebacker T.J. Watt.
“We need to win this game and that’s what we’re here to do,” Watt said earlier this week. “I’m willing to take anybody along with me because I am not ready to go home.”
Week in and week out, we’ve watched as Watt has done exactly that, keeping this team in contention and single-handedly made a mess of opponents’ offensive game plans, wreaking havoc on o-lines and making QBs think twice about holding on to the ball for very long.
Watt registered a whopping 22.5 sacks in the 2021 regular season, tying the great Michael Strahan’s official single-season record. That he did so in just 15 games, missing two with injury, points to just how special a player he is and how big an impact he can have every time he’s on the field.
If the seventh-seed Steelers have any chance at stirring up an upset against the second-seed Chiefs, it’ll be because of Watt.
AFC Wild Card Preview: Can the Bills’ run game lead them through the cold?
Source: Pinas Ko Mahal
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