The smell of spring and playoff races are starting to take to the air again and there is no more time to waste a game here or there. Every point matters in these last few weeks and if you start trending in one direction or another, it could be an indicator of how your season might end.
And, can you believe it, one month from today the Stanley Cup Playoffs will begin. The season has been a flash and now we’re ramping up for the most important time of year. With that in mind, we decided to run down the 19 teams still involved in the playoff race — whether deeply or loosely — and pose one question on each of them.
EASTERN CONFERENCE
Florida Panthers: Can Sergei Bobrovsky deliver?
It’s been five years since Sergei Bobrovsky won a Vezina and four since he was at his true peak. In his first two years with the Panthers, Bobrovsky’s play was a problem — .900 save percentage followed by a .906. In seven post-season games with the Panthers, Bobrovsky has allowed at least four goals against in four of them. Now, there is reason to be hopeful he’s figured it out again in 2021-22. He’s 12th by GSAA, has a .916 save percentage and is elevating again lately. This Panthers team is probably the best the organization has ever iced, with crazy depth at forward especially defining them. But one bad stretch from the goaltending can sink it all and Bobrovsky hasn’t inspired glowing confidence in a couple years — so is he up to the task?
Tampa Bay Lightning: After back-to-back wins, do they have enough in the tank for a third?
Look, the East is close with a ton of contenders, but if you had to bet your life savings on one of them right now, it would be hard to not go with the Lightning again. They have the goalie who could pull them through on his own, never mind the superstar power built up that makes the Lightning a force. GM Julien BriseBois even rebuilt his third line on the fly at the deadline. Their roster is strong enough to get out of the East again, but no one has played as much hockey as the Lightning over the past two seasons and it’s fair to wonder if they have enough gas left in the tank to go run through the gauntlet again.
Toronto Maple Leafs: Will Jack Campbell be OK?
Set to return to the lineup after a couple of weeks away, Campbell comes back from a rib injury just as Petr Mrazek is forced out six weeks. Since the Leafs didn’t bring in another goalie at the deadline, it’s all on Campbell from here — and he has an .882 save percentage since Jan. 1. He has a few weeks to get up to speed again and we should maybe allow that to play out a bit (heh), but there’s some no doubt in-market pressure on the goalie to show he can stabilize things here right away.
Boston Bruins: Do they have enough forward depth to go on a run?
The Bruins upgraded their blue line at the deadline and, we must say, Hampus Lindholm and Charlie McAvoy are coming together beautifully. But what about up front? Playoff injuries are a guarantee and teams that go on long runs tend to have to reach beyond their fourth lines. Now, the Bruins have an excellent core of leaders up front — Patrice Bergeron, Brad Marchand, Taylor Hall, David Pastrnak. But beyond that? Jake DeBrusk, with goals in three straight, has been mighty streaky. There was some question if the Bruins needed to add a second-line centre to upgrade on Erik Haula; Charlie Coyle has topped out as a third-liner. Anton Blidh, Jack Studnicka and Marc McLaughlin (who has one NHL game played coming out of the NCAA) are the first three to call on. Will it be enough?
Carolina Hurricanes: Will they regret not doing more at the deadline?
It was an aggressive build up in the East, where most of deadline season’s biggest buyers came from. And it’s not that Carolina needed to do anything major. On paper, they’re pretty complete and are top five in 5-on-5 expected goals percentage, shots for percentage and save percentage. They have the sixth-best power play and No. 1-ranked penalty kill. But as everyone around them took some big cuts, the Hurricanes waited for the last second to acquire Max Domi, an all-offence hail-mary they hope hits, or at the very least gives depth minutes. But this team has struggled to get over the playoff hump — they were eliminated by Boston (twice) and Tampa Bay in the past three playoffs, and the Canes earned a total of two wins in those 14 games. If they similarly peter out in 2022, will they look back at the deadline in regret?
NY Rangers: Can they overcome some questionable underlying numbers?
Consider this: the Rangers rank 24th in the NHL in 5-on-5 scoring chances against per 60 minutes, 23rd in expected goals against, 15th in shots against, and 30th in Corsi For percentage. All of those marks are worst among Eastern Conference playoff teams and don’t scream “powerhouse.” But it’s also true the Rangers have the fourth-best points percentage in the league, some dangerous star talent high in the lineup and potential award winners on forward, defence and in net. Igor Shesterkin is their difference-maker and there’s a reason he’s getting Hart Trophy buzz. But the playoffs are relentless and there are no soft touches in the East, so can the Rangers improve on some of these underlying trends come post-season, or will they be able to overcome that flow of play if they don’t?
Pittsburgh Penguins: Is this really the last dance?
Evgeni Malkin, Kris Letang and Bryan Rust are all still unsigned, and though we’d be surprised if Malkin does really leave, it seems quite possible the other two could. The Penguins are firing on all cylinders, far exceeding most pre-season expectations that were informed by three straight first-round exits. Tristan Jarry could easily be a question here, following up last season’s post-season disaster with a solid 2021-22, but this could be the final run this team has until some of that core starts to come apart.
Washington Capitals: Are they a forgotten team in the East being underrated, or a step below the other seven?
The Bruins’ surge has left the Capitals in the dust, and the most likely first-round opponent for the East’s top seed. While they searched for a goalie at the deadline, the Caps came away with only a couple of minor adds. They don’t have stand-out underlying numbers, bottom half of the league in Corsi, expected goals and actual goals percentage over the past couple of months and they’re 6-9-2 since Feb. 1 against teams currently occupying a playoff position.
WESTERN CONFERENCE
Colorado Avalanche: Can Nazem Kadri avoid an untimely suspension — and do we need to ask the same about Nathan MacKinnon?
Kadri is having a career season just in time for a new contract he could chase as a UFA, and as Colorado’s 2C he holds an important place in their path to success. But there’s also a troubling history here, as Kadri was suspended in the 2018 and 2019 playoffs, leading the Maple Leafs to trade him, and then was given an eight-gamer in the 2021 post-season with Colorado. Meantime, though MacKinnon has not been suspended, he has had a couple close calls this season, first with Nolan Patrick and then with a linesman. He’s been playing with an edge of frustration that seems liable to blow at any moment. The Avs can’t afford to lose either.
Minnesota Wild: Are they able to step into the upper tier of contenders?
The Wild were fading in February and in danger of slipping into a wild card berth, but GM Bill Guerin threw caution to the wind in this final season before debilitating cap penalties complicate his plans for the next three years. Nic Deslauriers and Jacob Middleton for tough minutes up front and on defence, and Marc-Andre Fleury to shore up the goaltending that had begun to be a question mark. They’re 5-0-1 since the deadline now and Fleury’s only played two games. How should we think of the Wild? They gave the favoured Golden Knights a run to seven games in last year’s first round, so they have that experience, and we have seen them top of table — in the first two months of the season they were tied with Calgary for the second-best points percentage in the Western Conference. Are they a team that will top out at winning a round or two, or are the Minnesota Wild able to step up past that?
Nashville Predators: Are they all the way back, or first-round fodder?
If not for an incredible run in the latter stages of last season by goalie Juuse Saros that made him a Vezina contender, the Predators would have missed the playoffs and who knows how much more change GM David Poile would have brought on them in the summer than he did. Now, this year’s team is getting throw back years from Ryan Johansen and Matt Duchene, a potential 100-point defenceman in Roman Josi, and Tanner Jeannot’s rookie rise out of nowhere. But that West is tough and the Predators could be looking down the Flames or Avalanche in Round 1. Acknowledging that, yes, Saros could steal a series on his own, if everything is equal are the Preds back as a lurking upset or bound to be a first-round warmup?
Calgary Flames: Are they Canada’s best Stanley Cup hope?
They have one of the best lines in the game this season, one of the best defence pairs, and one of the best, most consistent goalies. Unlike Edmonton or Toronto, the Flames didn’t have a laundry list of concerns to address, or think about addressing, at the deadline. They did add a couple of forwards in Tyler Toffoli and Calle Jarnkrok to build out some dangerous depth, and that will help them keep pace with Colorado, a team they had three tight battles with in March. Last year’s Habs made it to the final as an unlikely Cinderella, but these Flames look legit and may be Canada’s best hope to win it all for the first time since 1993.
Edmonton Oilers: Do they have the team defence to hang on to a playoff spot and win a round?
Scoring depth, team defence and goaltending have been the primary reasons why the Oilers dropped out of the playoffs early the past two seasons. All of those concerns are present with this year’s team, too, with maybe some improvements. There are these splits in the team’s play under Dave Tippett, compared to how they’ve been going under Jay Woodcroft since he was promoted on Feb. 10:
It’s been a promising turn for sure, and something that must keep up as the games get tougher and tighter. Then you notice how they’ve blown some recent leads — including Friday’s 4-1 advantage over the Blues — and you see legitimate reasons to doubt this team still haunt the halls. This is another situation, though, that really does also boil down to the goaltending. Mikko Koskinen or Mike Smith don’t need to steal a series — they just can’t blow one.
Los Angeles Kings: Are they a year ahead of schedule, or about to go off?
The Kings have a lot going for them and a nice mix of a young group of players they drafted with an ageing core that’s still hanging around and contributing. They were certainly tracking in the right direction coming into 2021-22, but did we expect them to challenge for second in the Pacific and home-ice advantage? Offence is a challenge, but running Anze Kopitar and Phillip Danault (who actually is scoring, by the way) as your top two centres could help slow down an opponent’s offence. But is a long run reasonably in the cards, or will 2022 be about the “experience” of the playoffs to build on for later?
St. Louis Blues: How does the goalie situation evolve in the final weeks and who starts Game 1?
Couldn’t have seen this coming at the start of the season, but Ville Husso has taken over in the net, earning 10 March starts to Jordan Binnington’s four. But, as we know, the goaltending position can be fickle and a month is a long time in their world. As good as Husso has been, we should note he posted just an .898 save percentage in those March starts and so we wonder how this picture might still change before Game 1, and then what happens once the puck drops on the post-season. Binnington wasn’t much better last month either, but it feels like there’s still room for a controversy to brew here.
Dallas Stars: Do they have enough offence?
This is not a new question for the Stars and, in fact, followed them into the 2020 playoffs when they went all the way to the Stanley Cup Final. In that season, Dallas went in averaging 2.58 goals per game, 26th in the league. This season they’re actually better, averaging 2.89 per game to rank 19th (goals are up around the league this season). That is better than only Los Angeles among playoff teams. They are effectively a one-line team when it comes to scoring. As they showed in 2020, this can be overcome with great goaltending, which could still be possible now with Jake Oettinger.
Vegas Golden Knights: Dangerous wild card team, or slipping out of contention?
Robin Lehner appears close to returning, so that’s one positive. Max Pacioretty, Mark Stone, and Reilly Smith all remain out — and though their statuses are unclear, it will require some finesse to fit everyone back in if they’re healthy in-season. We’re not used to seeing Vegas struggle like this. Over the last two months, their .479 points percentage is tied with Arizona for 23rd in the league, and it’s the lowest among all playoff teams. The temptation is, though, that if they can just get into the playoffs and have everyone return, the old Vegas could be back and give a higher seed a real hard time. But is that actually how it would play out if they did end up making it? It would be a lot to expect the team to immediately turn the tap back on again after being so banged up all year.
Winnipeg Jets: What does this last push mean for the off-season?
The Jets aren’t quite as close as they appear. Just four points out of the wild card-holding Golden Knights, Winnipeg probably has to worry more about the Dallas Stars, who are three points ahead of them with three games in hand. More importantly for Winnipeg, their last 13 games will help inform what comes next in the off-season. What needs to change after such a disappointing season? Who can be part of the solution?
Vancouver Canucks: Can Thatcher Demko carry them to an unlikely playoff berth?
We’re really stretching it here describing the Canucks as “in the playoff race” — they enter Saturday with just a 2.3 per cent chance according to Money Puck. But I’m not here to snuff out hope. The Canucks’ overachievement that gave the impression they were hanging around has started to give and now, with odds this long, their road back will depend on one player: Thatcher Demko. The Canucks need a miracle and their only hope might be Bubble Demko. Can the goalie steal all of the games the rest of the way? That’s basically Vancouver’s path here. (Did I just snuff out hope?)
A question for each team in the playoff race one month before post-season
Source: Pinas Ko Mahal
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