As the Toronto Blue Jays’ off-season begins in earnest, one of its most interesting figures in the early going is Steven Matz.
While it will be fascinating to see what the Blue Jays do about the potential departures of free agents Robbie Ray and Marcus Semien, in the immediate term the course with them is clear. On Sunday, the team will offer each a qualifying offer in expectation of seeing both decline to safeguard draft pick compensation if they sign elsewhere. It would be foolish for the Blue Jays to do anything but tender the offers and it would be foolish of the players to do anything but turn them down.
Matz is creating more intrigue because there are legitimate arguments to be made for both offering and not offering the southpaw a QO. Last year, the left-hander posted 2.8 WAR with 150.2 innings of 3.82 ERA ball, which FanGraphs valued at $22.1 million. If he repeats those numbers, he’d be good value on a qualifying offer and considering his age (30) there’s no reason to expect a precipitous decline.
That said, 2021 was Matz’s best season. He managed just 2.1 WAR in the prior four seasons combined, despite pitching over 400 innings. The former New York Met would likely accept a qualifying offer, and tendering one to him would be buying him at the price reflecting one of his best possible outcomes, when players are normally valued closer to their median projection.
Although payroll flexibility can feel more like a buzzword than a tangible concept at times, the way the Blue Jays value it also factors in. With Hyun-Jin Ryu and George Springer on the books — plus Vladimir Guerrero Jr., and Teoscar Hernandez looking at significant raises through arbitration —it’s harder to come by for Toronto these days. That makes it hard to see the club putting nearly $20 million aside for Matz.
Instead of locking down the 30-year-old, it seems more likely the Blue Jays will be in the market for a new Matz (who doesn’t preclude them from pursuing a higher-end starter). If Toronto wants to strike gold with a back-of-the-rotation starter again it could look to find someone with someone of the qualities Matz brought to the table prior to 2021, which include:
• A rough prior season that brings the price tag down (Matz posted a 9.68 ERA in 30.2 innings in 2020)
• Limited team control (if any) to ensure they’re available
• Some track record of success, as at least a back-of-the-rotation starter
• Young enough that their recent struggles aren’t likely to be caused by age-related decline
• Something intriguing in their repertoire (like Matz’s high-velocity sinker and above-average changeup)
Here are three guys who could fit the bill:
Dylan Bundy
Age: 28
Throws: Right
Contract status: Free agent
2021 stats: 8.34 K/9, 3.38 BB/9, 1.99 HR/9 with a 6.06 ERA and 5.51 FIP in 90.2 IP for 0.0 WAR
What went wrong last season: Basically everything. Bundy saw an across-the-board decline in 2021 after providing 65.2 exceptional innings in a shortened 2020. The right-hander’s contact management was particularly poor. After suppressing hard contact across the board in 2020…
… Bundy couldn’t recreate any of that magic in 2021:
Bundy saw his command and control waver in 2021 as his walk rate rose and he struggled with keeping his changeup and sinker down — leading to power spikes against those pitches.
Why he could be a Matz-type: Although Bundy’s raw stuff has declined significantly since he was a Baltimore Orioles wunderkind nearly a decade ago, it didn’t change much between 2020 and 2021. Now a soft tosser, Bundy actually picked up 0.7 mph on his fastball last year (up to a modest 90.7), and he still has four different pitches with above-average vertical movement and 89th percentile spin rate on his fastball.
He’s clearly not overpowering, but his stuff is compelling in its own way. It’s not hard to imagine him finding a level of success with it somewhere between the form that saw him rack up 2.0 WAR in just 11 starts in 2020 and the struggles that got him booted from an unimpressive Los Angeles Angels rotation last year.
Vince Velasquez
Age: 29
Throws: Right
Contract status: Free agent
2021 stats: 9.64 K/9, 4.67 BB/9, 2.19 HR/9 with a 6.30 ERA and 5.88 FIP in 94.1 IP for -0.3 WAR
What went wrong last season: Much like Bundy, Velasquez got hit around in 2021.
Unlike Bundy, Velasquez missed some bats along the way, but he also walked far too many batters. The combination of putting hitters on, then letting them make hard contact, was deadly and by the end of the year, he was toiling in a barren San Diego Padres rotation more than a month after the Philadelphia Phillies released him. He’s struggled with control and contact management at times throughout his career, but never as badly as he did in 2021.
Why he could be a Matz-type: Velasquez’s career numbers don’t jump off the page (particularly his 4.95 ERA), but he’s got two seasons of 2-plus WAR under his belt, and his 9.75 K/9 as a starter ranks 24th league-wide since 2015 — in between Luis Castillo and Noah Syndergaard.
His fastball is a particularly strong pitch with respectable velocity (93.2 mph), strong vertical movement (plus-13 percent above average) and excellent spin rate (75th percentile). As Devan Fink of FanGraphs pointed out in September, there’s reason to believe he could improve if he leaned on it more. Velasquez also has a biting slider with significantly above-average horizontal run (plus-22 percent):
The tools are there with Velasquez, but the Phillies were never able to help him convert them into consistent production. Perhaps another team employing a pitching coach with a growing reputation would have more luck.
Chad Kuhl
Age: 29
Throws: Right
Contract status: One year of team control with the Pittsburgh Pirates (projected arbitration salary $3 million)
2021 stats: 8.40 K/9, 4.71 BB/9, 1.46 HR/9 with a 4.82 ERA and 5.31 FIP in 80.1 IP for -0.1 WAR
What went wrong last season: After a mediocre start to the year, Kuhl was bumped from the rotation. The right-hander’s walk-to-strikeout ratio of 1.66 as a starter was well below league-average, eroding the Pirates’ faith in him (2.88) despite some superficially acceptable results. Once in the bullpen, he performed even worse (6.75 ERA and 6.31 FIP) on the way to a lost season.
Why he could be a Matz-type: Kuhl last strong season came in 2017, but he has a couple of factors in his favour. The right-hander pairs a solid fastball (67th percentile velocity) with a hard slider in the high 80s, touching the 90s at times:
That’s been his top strikeout pitch in each of his five MLB seasons. It’s never induced a whiff rate below 33.5 percent, and has been worth minus-38 runs since 2017 according to Statcast. Although it’s seldom used, he also wields a curveball with average movement but a gaudy spin rate (79th percentile).
There’s not a lot in Kuhl’s recent numbers to like, but his arsenal is intriguing. It’s no sure thing that it could be unlocked outside the confines of Pittsburgh, but considering the Pirates’ lacklustre reputation for developing pitching lately — and the modest price tag that would be attached to Kuhl — he’s the sort of guy who it could pay to pry loose.
Where could the Blue Jays look for next year’s Steven Matz?
Source: Pinas Ko Mahal
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